One Step Away from a Water Crisis in Iran
Tehran – IRNA – Due to declining rainfall, Iran has entered a stage of water stress. A country with more than 1,700 cubic meters of renewable water resources per person per year is generally considered to have sufficient water resources. Iran crossed this threshold in 2012, and if water availability falls below this level, the country officially enters water stress—a condition that Iran is now on the verge of experiencing.
Drought, reduced precipitation, and the resulting water scarcity have become major challenges for many countries, including Iran. Located within the world’s arid belt, Iran has historically faced water shortages. Traditional innovations such as the qanat system and the engineered water distribution network of the Zayandeh Rud River, designed by Sheikh Baha’i, are evidence of the country’s long history of adapting to limited water resources. People traditionally understood that water was scarce and managed their resources accordingly.
In recent years, however, rapid industrial and agricultural development has led to the excessive exploitation of existing water resources. As a result, Iran has entered a period of water stress and is approaching a full-scale water crisis. Whether a country is classified as being under water stress or water crisis is determined by the amount of renewable water available per capita each year. Countries with more than 1,700 cubic meters per person annually are considered to have adequate water resources, while those below this threshold gradually move from water stress toward water crisis. Iran is currently at the threshold of water stress and only one step away from a nationwide water crisis. Although some regions of the country are already experiencing water crisis conditions, Iran as a whole has not yet fully reached that stage.
Speaking to IRNA’s environmental correspondent, the Director of the Water and Wastewater Research Center stated that Iran is currently facing extreme climatic conditions, with average annual rainfall falling below the long-term historical average.
Abbas Akbarzadeh added that, even under the most optimistic scenario, the country can only hope to return to its long-term average rainfall. Over hundreds and thousands of years, Iran’s average annual precipitation was approximately 250 millimeters, but it has now declined to around 200 millimeters and continues to decrease. Forecasts indicate that rainfall will continue to decline through 2050. Therefore, even if the country experiences occasional periods of rainfall, this should not be interpreted as a return to normal climatic conditions.
According to projections by several international organizations, Iran’s renewable water availability could decline to just 500 cubic meters per person per year by 2050—a catastrophic level.
He further stated that the central issue today is the country’s increasing water stress and the growing risk of water crisis. Studies of Iran’s water resources indicate that almost the entire country is now at the threshold of water stress. Water stress is a critical indicator used worldwide to assess and analyze a country’s water security. It is measured based on the amount of renewable freshwater available per capita each year. Countries with more than 1,700 cubic meters of renewable water resources per person annually are generally considered to have a normal and sustainable water supply.
Responding to a question about the current state of Iran’s water resources, he said: “In 1921, Iran had approximately 17,000 cubic meters of water resources per capita, making it one of the world’s water-rich countries. However, it should be noted that the population was much smaller at that time. With an average annual rainfall of about 250 millimeters, the available water divided among the population resulted in a very high per capita figure. Over the following decades, rapid population growth coincided with declining rainfall, gradually pushing the country into a state of water stress. For example, in 1921, Iran’s population was less than 20 million, and renewable water availability was about 4,500 cubic meters per person per year, well above the internationally recognized water stress threshold of 1,700 cubic meters. Between 2011 and 2012, however, this figure dropped close to 1,700 cubic meters per capita per year. If it falls below 1,000 cubic meters per person annually, the country will move from water stress into a full-scale water crisis.”
Since 2022, Iran Has Been Between Water Stress and Water Crisis
A faculty member of the Water Research Institute added: “Between 2011 and 2013, and more clearly by 2014, Iran reached the threshold of 1,700 cubic meters of renewable water per capita per year, marking its entry into water stress. Up to that point, every Iranian still had access to approximately 1,700 cubic meters of renewable water resources annually. However, by 2022, this figure had declined to a level between the water stress and water crisis thresholds. This does not mean that every part of the country is experiencing the same conditions. Some regions are in a better situation, while others are facing more severe shortages. These figures represent the national average. Therefore, from a scientific perspective, Iran as a whole has not yet entered a full water crisis but remains under significant water stress. With effective water management, conservation measures, and improved consumption patterns, it is still possible to prevent the country from crossing into a full-scale water crisis. However, if current consumption trends and management practices continue unchanged, there will be little reason for optimism.”
The chart above shows that the country is moving toward a water crisis, with renewable water resources expected to fall below the threshold of 1,000 cubic meters per capita per year, which signifies a water crisis.
He stated that forecasts by several international organizations indicate that Iran’s per capita renewable water resources could decline to just 500 cubic meters by 2050, a situation that would be catastrophic. However, he emphasized that modern technologies can help manage and address this challenge. By implementing effective strategies and adopting innovative technological solutions, it is still possible to prevent such a crisis.
Responding to a question about how Iran can confront the looming water shortage, Akbarzadeh explained that there are clear strategies for dealing with water scarcity. The key question is what responsibilities fall on the government and the public. He noted that all possible actions can be divided into two categories: demand management and water production. The first involves managing water consumption with public cooperation, while the second requires authorities responsible for water supply to increase production through new and innovative approaches rather than relying solely on conventional methods.
He explained that conventional methods refer to the traditional natural water supply cycle, in which water flows into rivers, is stored behind dams, and is then distributed to consumers through water supply networks. These methods should continue to be used; however, because water inflow has declined, the amount of available water will inevitably decrease as well. As a result, there is limited opportunity for major improvements through conventional systems alone.
One of the most important aspects of water demand management is the role of the media. Through public awareness campaigns and educational programs, media organizations can play a significant role in promoting efficient water consumption and encouraging a culture of conservation.
The Director of the Water and Wastewater Research Center continued by highlighting the importance of utilizing unconventional water resources. These include desalination of seawater and brackish water, the reuse of treated wastewater, and the recycling of greywater, such as water from kitchen sinks, showers, and washing machines, excluding sewage from toilets. He also referred to deep groundwater resources as strategic reserves that should only be used under carefully controlled conditions, particularly fossil water resources, which should be reserved for emergency situations.
He added that public awareness through traditional and social media remains one of the most effective tools for improving water consumption. In several countries, social media has become a highly successful instrument for water conservation campaigns, although in Iran it has not yet been fully recognized as a major solution. Another important step is the development of comprehensive standards and regulations, which requires close cooperation among different ministries and government organizations. Positive progress has already been made in this area over recent years.
Akbarzadeh cited toilet flush tanks as an excellent example of how improved standards can significantly reduce water consumption. In the past, flush tanks were designed with very large reservoirs, and people were even advised to place bricks or plastic bottles inside the tanks to reduce water usage. However, this was never considered a practical or sustainable solution. Instead, engineering standards were revised so that modern flush tanks now have a capacity of approximately six liters instead of the previous fifteen liters. This simple design improvement has significantly reduced the amount of drinking water wasted with each flush, demonstrating how a seemingly small innovation can have a substantial impact on water conservation and the efficiency of household equipment.
He continued by saying that the third example in water demand management is the use of water-saving devices, commonly known as aerators. These devices mix air with water in a way that reduces water consumption without compromising the user’s perception of water pressure or comfort. This technology can reduce water consumption by approximately 20%, which is a significant saving. However, in Iran, due to the poor quality of some water-saving devices, many users remove them from their faucets, leading to the misconception that these devices are ineffective, whereas they can play a major role in reducing water consumption when properly designed and manufactured.
The faculty member of the Water Research Institute explained that the fourth example is optimizing water consumption in agriculture. According to World Bank estimates for addressing water scarcity in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, modern irrigation systems can reduce agricultural water consumption by around 40%. This figure does not represent 40% of total national water use but rather 40% of the water consumed in the agricultural sector. In Iran, however, there is disagreement between the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Agriculture regarding agriculture’s share of total water consumption. The Ministry of Energy estimates that agriculture accounts for 92% of the country’s water use, while the Ministry of Agriculture reports the figure to be 70%—a percentage more commonly associated with developed countries. Regardless of the exact figure, reducing agricultural water use by 40% would have a substantial impact on improving overall water management.
He emphasized that achieving this target is entirely feasible through the expansion of modern irrigation systems, greenhouse farming, and changes in cropping patterns. For example, replacing water-intensive crops such as watermelon with crops that require significantly less water, while importing water-intensive products using the added economic value generated, would represent a more efficient use of water resources. Likewise, advanced irrigation methods that deliver water directly to plant roots through piping systems—rather than exposing it to evaporation—provide another practical solution for achieving these water savings.
Although the Ministry of Energy estimates that agriculture accounts for 92% of Iran’s total water consumption, the Ministry of Agriculture places the figure at 70%, noting that the lower percentage is more typical of developed countries.
Akbarzadeh added that another important aspect of water management is the development and optimization of conventional water infrastructure, including water treatment plants and distribution systems, to minimize water losses and reduce evaporation during transmission. In many countries, for example, the surfaces of reservoirs are covered with black floating balls to reduce evaporation. In other locations, solar panel canopies are installed over reservoirs, simultaneously preventing water loss through evaporation while generating renewable electricity. These are practical examples of improving conventional water management methods.
He concluded by noting that although conventional water resources alone will not be sufficient to address Iran’s growing water challenges due to declining rainfall, they remain critically important. Protecting and efficiently managing the limited water resources that still exist is essential for ensuring long-term water security.